Ex-pollster, ex-AAP member, and presently Congress supporter professor Yogendra Yadav recently predicted that the BJP won’t get more than 233 seats in the 2024 general election. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi too told many times that the BJP isn’t getting more than 150 seats and ‘Narendra Modi won’t be prime minister again’. If you are on social media, especially Twitter, you will find many surveys propagated by Congress and AAP supporters showing the BJP is losing. In YouTube channels, both sides propel their survey numbers to claim their victories.
Well, once upon a time, Yogendra Yadav was a famed pollster. But then he became part of active politics, and many of his predictions were guided by political bias. For example, before the 2019 general election, he predicted a loss for the BJP. In the recent assembly election in Rajasthan, MP, and Chhattisgarh, he also predicted a Congress victory.
In social media too, most surveys are fake and propagandistic with a vested interest. YouTube channels aren’t different. You can understand if you see a few videos from the same YouTube channel. They used a particular set of people to ask about the political situation in the area. If a channel supports the BJP, then it will ask people who are supporting the BJP. Similarly, the channel, which is supporting the opposition, will ask people who support the opposition.
However, people who have an interest in politics and are mostly neutral, sometimes remain confused by such predictions. Many of them used to ask me what the possible outcome would be. But people must understand that, because of the Election Commissioner’s restriction, there’s no authentic survey data being published between the pre-poll survey and the exit poll. Thus, no fresh data is available. As a data-driven analyst, it’s difficult for me to find any idea about what’s going on in this election before exit poll data. However, I will use some past but important data to give you some indication.
Seats were won by getting more than 50% of the vote share.
In 2014, a total of 200 seats were won by getting more than 50% of the vote share, out of which BJP had 136. In 2019, a total of 341 seats were won by candidates getting more than fifty percent of the vote share, out of which BJP’s number was 224. That means BJP had increased 88 number seats in having more than 50% vote share. Interestingly, despite this increase, BJP’s total seats increased by just 21 (282 in 2014 and 303 in 2019). What does it mean? It means many seats that were won by BJP with less than 50% vote share in 2014, also increased in its vote share beyond 50% in 2019. That means these became their core seats.
Let me give another example: in 2014, BJP had only 17 seats in UP where it had more than 50% vote share, whereas in 2019, BJP had 40 seats in which it got more than 50% vote share. That means there’s an increase in 23 seats where it got more than 50% of the vote share in that state. But BJP lost 9 seats in UP compared to 2014. This also indicates that in at least 23 seats that were won by BJP in 2014 with a vote share less than fifty percent, they got more than fifty percent in 2019. However, it’s also a fact that, because of a coalition between SP and BSP, BJP lost nine seats in UP.
Let me give further data on this. In 2014, BJP allies got 21 seats with more than 50% margin, whereas in 2019 its allies got 32 seats with more than 50% margin, with the addition of 11 JDU seats who became allies of NDA in 2019. In 2019, notable parties having more than 50% vote share seats include DMK 19 and YSRCP 13. Congress, which got 7 seats in 2014 with more than 50 percent of the vote share, increased its tally to 18 in 2019.
What does the data suggest?
Well, it says that people overwhelmingly voted for BJP in 2019, which may be because of the Balakot strike conducted by BJP government. On the other hand, you can say that the spirit of nationalism made many people vote for BJP in 2019 compared to 2014. At the same time, there was also an increase in vote share among the opposition because of more strategic tie-ups. But NDA’s tally had increased to 353 seats.
To assess the present conditions, the following points may be noted.
Those people who voted for BJP and NDA both in 2014 and 2019 whether ready to go away from BJP and NDA? May be there’s no Balakote or Pulwama now, but whether BJP and Narendra Modi so unpopular that those who voted for BJP and Modi will choose to vote for opposition led by Congress and Rahul Gandhi? May be there’s some anti-incumbency effect, at least at the local level, but whether some NDA voters would remain absent or vote for opposition?
Next point to be deliberated on is opposition unity. Is there really any unity? If we consider I.N.D.I. Alliance, then it’s nothing but a coalition between UPA and some other parties of the third front, like TMC, AAP, Left, SP etc. But TMC, AAP and Left aren’t contesting in alliance with UPA rather contesting against them in West Bengal, Punjab and Kerala. In UP, there’s no alliance between SP and BSP and BSP is contesting in all seats of UP. That means officially, on the ground, there’s no opposition unity. So how will people consider it while voting? Are they so dejected on BJP and NDA that they will vote for anybody who stands against BJP and NDA?
Polls are neither on social media nor on YouTube channels. It’s not even won by giving a prediction. The polls are won and lost in the polling booths. That means whichever party and alliance has a presence on the ground in terms of political workers at booth level will only win. Now open your eyes and look into the ground levels and you will get the possible result of this election.
Still no clue? Well, let me give you a hint. Most of the pollsters who are tracking the voting trend for their exit poll data are in the media debates, subjected to questions such as BJP’s claim of 400 plus, the opposition’s claim of BJP not reaching 200 marks, etc. They don’t disclose anything about the data, but their body language says that they don’t find any difference.
I think sane people can know what I am to say now. I can’t say anything beyond that except a caveat that anything can happen in Indian politics, especially in Indian electoral politics.