Some pollsters and many from the opposition expect that the BJP may lose this election. Well, everyone has a right to make political claims. Even the BJP could lose this election. So, neither I contest their claim or wish, nor am I sure what the outcome of the election will be. We will only know on 4th June what actual result is and how accurate the pollsters predicting the exit poll estimates and parties claiming the number of seats they will win.
However, I have a grave reservation on their logic based on simple arithmetic. Politics although a game of numbers but it’s not simple arithmetic. Let me give some examples.
Many oppositions and even some experts say that BJP got only 37.3% vote share in 2019. That means 62.7% voters are anti-BJP. In the same logic, I can claim that Congress got 19.46% vote share. Are 80.54% voters being anti-Congress. And then if I go other parties, then similar analogical conclusions will come out. Does such conclusion right? The answer is not It doesn’t matter what is your overall vote share, rather it matters in which area you get more votes.
Let me give another example. TMC got an overall vote share of 4.06% and 22 number of seats. On the other hand, YSRCP got an overall vote share of 2.53 % and got the same 22 number of seats. TDP got 2.04% vote share which is just 0.5% less vote share than YSRCP yet it got only 3 seats. Similarly, DMK got an overall vote share of 2.34% vote share but garnered 24 seats, 2 seats more than TMC and YSRCP. So, overall vote share has really no meaning except some statistical expression, rather getting vote share where it matters is the important one. BJP has dominance in North and Western Hindi heartland (excluding Punjab), Assam, Odisha, and Karnataka. It has got more votes than others and that’s why it got more seats. Where it is not present like Kerala, TN, Andhra Pradesh etc. it almost gets negligible votes.
Let’s take another angle. In TN, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, should we consider that people have rejected BJP? In that logic, Congress is also rejected in Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, UP etc. The answer is no. Fact is that is such states BJP or Congress has no bases and people have strong rivals to choose between. In case of TN, there were two sides DMK and AIDMK. In Andhra there were two sides YSRCP and TDP.
Now let us come to another point. Does the INDI Alliance is made based on the theory that 62.7% votes are against BJP works. Well, it could have worked had all seats are multi-cornered contests. In that case all parties would have arithmetically added (although this is also not so simple).
Let’s understand what INDI Alliance is. Frankly it’s an alliance between UPA and other opposition parties, like Left, TMC, AAP, SP etc. Rest equations are same as it was in 2019 general elections. For example, there is no addition of INDI Alliance in West Bengal, Punjab, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh. Congress is absent in Bengal and UP. Left is absent in Bengal, UP and Delhi. BJP is absent in Kerala, Punjab. Both BJP and Congress are absent in Andhra Pradesh. So, if I consider proper effect of INDI Alliance, then there’s only one state that is Delhi. In rest everything the equations of 2019 general elections prevails. (In Maharashtra, Uddhav faction of Shiv Sena joined UPA, but BJP got another faction of Shiv Sena with them. Also, Ajit led faction of NCP became part of NDA. Thus, the addition and subtraction became net zero).
SO, if BJP to lose the election what would be the key if not arithmetic? It’s simple, Congress has to perform in its areas, likewise TMC, SP had to perform in their areas of domination. In Kerala and Punjab, whoever wins (partner of INDI Alliance) are not going to affect NDA’s future.
Do mere alliance is guarantee for win? The answer is a no. Because if two parties allied, doesn’t mean the loyal voters of both parties can add up. For example, there were a SP-BSP alliance in UP, TDP-Congress alliance in Telangana, Left-Congress alliance in West Bengal. All those alliances failed because the voters didn’t add up. SP voters are against BSP party and the vice versa. Thus, at the top level Akhilesh and Mayawati might have an alliance but BSP’s voter didn’t vote for SP and same was the case for SP voters.
So, the bottom line is that the politics in a diverse country like India, can’t be analyzed based on simple arithmetic. There are lot of other aspects/parameters such as chemistry of alliance, area of dominance, strategic voting, and lot of other parameters. Thus, let’s not be confused with all such arithmetical analogies, rather enjoy the festival of democracy. On June 4th, we will know who won and who lost and need to respect the public mandate. Yes, we can do some analysis as to why a party won or lost. But that’s after 4th June.