Congress Leader Rahul Gandhi started the ‘Bharat Jodo Nyaya Yatra’ from Manipur on 14th January 2024. This politically ambitious Yatra will cover 6713 KMs across 15 states and will be completed on March 20–21 in Mumbai. Congress is expecting that this Yatra will give them sufficient political advantage with which they will be able to defeat the BJP-led NDA. My point of discussion is whether this Yatra will prove helpful in gaining political benefits.
Do Yatras have any effect on elections?
No doubt, Lal Krishna Advani’s ‘Ram Rath Yatra’ in October 1990 gave a boost to the BJP’s political growth following which it came to power in MP, UP, Rajasthan and retained power in Gujarat. BJP also came to power at the centre in 1996. Well, ‘Ram Rath Yatra’ might have some effect, but BJP’s then growth was due to many other factors. Such as weakening of Congress, the unstable governments by Janata Dal coalitions, corruption cases and so many other reasons. This can be proved from the failure of ‘Bharat Uday Yatra’ undertaken by Sri Advani close to general election 2004, yet BJP lost that general election. After that Advani took ‘Bharat Suraksha Yatra’ and ‘Jan Chetna Yatra’ too. But Advani couldn’t win the 2009 general election despite being a Prime Ministerial candidate and during 2014 general election he wasn’t the Prime Ministerial candidate.
Let’s now come to Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ of 2023. There were state government elections during and after this Yatra. Congress won decisively in Karnataka assembly election. Many Congress followers and opposition members gave credit of the Karnataka assembly win to this ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ but then Congress humiliatingly lost Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh although they have won Telangana dominatingly. If ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ has anything with the Congress win, then it should have something on Congress’s loss in Hindi heartland.
Simple analysis of 2023 assembly elections
A neutral analysis would say that Congress’s win in Karnataka and Telangana was due to anti-incumbency of the ruling party coupled with allegations of corruption and nepotism. In Rajasthan its history repeated, and anti-incumbency was the cause of Congress’s defeat. In MP, Congress’s organisation was very weak and thus BJP is still able to defeat the anti-incumbency effect. In Chhattisgarh, it’s the internal groupism inside Congress party coupled with some corruption charges that made Congress lose the election.
My point is simple – such Yatras may infuse a spirit among party workers but not enough to win elections. It requires proper strategy, organisational strength and propagating a proper narrative. Without that I don’t think any party or alliance can win an election in today’s India.
Bhart Jodo Nyaya yatra-2024
Rahul Gandhi again started another Yatra called ‘Bharat Jodo Nyaya Yatra’. Although many Congress followers think that this Yatra will enable Congress and it’s INDI Alliance to win the 2024 general election. I have strong observation on it, especially when this Yatra is conducted after Congress chiefs rejecting Ram temple invitation. That means this Yatra is now standing opposite to the Ram Idol Consecration. Can Congress and its alliance afford such a narrative?
Politics in India is a game of perception. And voters are usually vulnerable to recency bias. Thus, whatever you do during this Yatra including visiting temples etc., this Yatra will be viewed as anti-Ram. Thus, many fence sitters are likely to be attracted towards BJP led NDA alliance. There are already anti-Sanatan remarks from Congress allies, even many Congress people are trying to do North-South divide depicting North India’s people as illiterate, communal etc, things will become pathetic for Congress in 2024 general election.
What Rahul Gadhi should do?
As the Yatra already started, there’s no need to stop. But Rahul Gandhi needs to leave this Yatra to his deputies. He should come to the centre stage of electioneering. He must take the lead, talk to his allies, stop people spreading damaging narratives, such as ‘North-south divide’, ‘Anti-Sanatan’ comments, ‘Anti-Ram temple’ comments and so on. There are a lot of differences among INDI Alliance. As a leader, Rahul Gandhi must show his leadership quality to unite all the allies. There is really a lot of work to be done in such a short time.
If Rahul Gandhi doesn’t understand this and puts his trust in his ambitious ‘Bharat Jodo Nyaya yatra’, then I won’t be surprised if Congress get less that the tally it got in 2014 general election. Thus, it’s up to Rahul Gandhi, whether to re-energize his party’s prospect or head to oblivion.