Post the SCO meeting, a significant geopolitical debate has emerged. Many are suggesting a new global order is rising, especially given the extraordinary bonhomie displayed by Russia, China, and India at the event. The optics have given experts a lot to consider. Many, including American experts, believe that due to the flawed policies of the Trump administration, India is now siding with China and Russia, thereby undermining America’s decades-long effort to cultivate India as a rival to China. This raises a crucial question: is India’s diplomacy heading in a new direction? Should India abandon America for China? If the U.S. can’t be trusted, can China? I will analyze this fast-changing international political landscape from an Indian perspective.
The recent SCO summit in Kazan saw unprecedented coordination between India, Russia, and China on multiple fronts – from energy cooperation to alternative payment mechanisms. The sight of Modi, Putin, and Xi engaging in extensive bilateral meetings while collectively endorsing multipolarity has indeed rattled Western observers. However, reading too much into diplomatic choreography can be misleading.
India and China
China’s primary goal is to replace America as the global leader in all aspects, at least by 2050. Previously, China considered India a soft target that could be bullied. However, India has grown stronger since its 1962 defeat. India’s firm stance during the Doklam and Galwan standoffs, and finally during ‘Operation Sindoor,’ has convinced China that it can no longer take India lightly. If China is to engage with India, it must forget about competition or overtaking America. This realization is why China has started extending a hand of friendship to India. It began during the Chinese New Year when Xi Jinping wrote a letter to the Indian President to revive their friendship.
The economic reality cannot be ignored – China remains India’s largest trading partner with bilateral trade exceeding $125 billion, despite border tensions. This economic interdependence creates pressure for pragmatic engagement, even as strategic competition continues. China understands that containing India while simultaneously seeking its partnership in initiatives like BRICS and SCO creates contradictions in its own policy.
India, too, has shown that it doesn’t abandon friends, even during difficult times. When Trump imposed additional tariffs on India for its purchase of Russian oil, India still stood by Russia. This demonstrates India’s assertion that its foreign policy cannot be dictated by anyone, including America. Thus, if China wants friendship, it will also be valued, regardless of pressure from the West.
However, India has its own conditions. China sought a friendship in all aspects of the relationship while ignoring border disputes. But India is clear on its policy: business can only be done if the borders are peaceful. The Indian Prime Minister attended the SCO meeting and expressed that India is ready to revive relations, provided all issues—including border disputes, terrorism, and sovereignty issues like the CPEC passing through POK—are resolved. This stance was clearly stated by PM Modi at the SCO meeting. If India can defy America, it can also defy China. That is the message to China.
Additionally, while India attended the SCO meeting, it did not participate in China’s military parade. This was a clear message that India will not be part of any military display with any country. This is mature diplomacy. It is now up to China to decide if it truly wants to do business with India and fulfill India’s demands. In the context of China, India’s diplomacy is mature and clear. It’s up to other countries to understand India’s policy and determine how to make terms with it.
India and America
Before Trump’s second term, many American diplomats and Presidents understood that India could not be bullied. Since India’s independence, America has often had a difficult relationship with India, refusing to provide technology and weapons and allying with India’s arch-enemies like Pakistan and even China in the 1970s. In 1971, America even sent a naval fleet in support of Pakistan. The U.S. has sanctioned India many times, including in 1996 when India tested nuclear bombs. NASA refused to help ISRO and even prevented other countries from providing cryogenic engines. Yet, India grew and made many indigenous discoveries and innovations. While India has procured weapons from Russia, it has also done so from France and other nations and has even begun producing much of its own defense equipment.
The irony is that America’s past hostility inadvertently strengthened India’s self-reliance. Today, US-India trade stands at over $190 billion, and American companies have significant investments in India’s technology and manufacturing sectors. This economic relationship creates mutual stakes that go beyond government-to-government relations.
India grew despite America’s hostile relations. This is why successive American Presidents and diplomats over the last three decades have carefully invested in India to build a strategic relationship in Asia. They have done so without compromising India’s self-interest or pride. India, too, has accepted these relationships as long as they do not obstruct India’s core policy. It has procured defense equipment from America without breaking its defense pacts with Russia or other countries like France.
The Trump administration seems to have believed that India might be a soft target that could be bullied. Trump was able to bully some smaller countries and even the European Union. Those countries are dependent on America for their security, so they fell in line. But India does not depend on America for its security or for other things. India understands that its relationship with America must be for mutual benefit. If America wants to treat India as a subordinate, India will not tolerate it.
This is exactly what is happening now, and India has clearly indicated that it will maintain its strategic independence and autonomy in all policies, whether trade, foreign affairs, or anything else. There may be some losses due to Trump’s tariffs, but India’s economy is based on domestic consumption, and it is large enough to absorb these losses. India may not impose reciprocal tariffs, but it will start imposing non-tariff barriers, making it difficult for American companies to export to India and causing them to lose a significant market.
Domestically, this approach enjoys broad support across party lines in India. The Indian public, having witnessed decades of American inconsistency, supports a foreign policy that prioritizes national dignity and interests over partnerships that demand subservience.
The Strategic Calculus
This multi-alignment approach does carry risks. India must carefully navigate between major powers without appearing unreliable to any. However, India’s growing economic weight – now the world’s fifth-largest economy – provides the leverage needed for such strategic autonomy. The key is ensuring that this independence doesn’t inadvertently lead to isolation if global tensions escalate further.
What the future of the America-India relationship holds, only time will tell. It’s important to note that even during the Biden administration, the American deep state was very active and working against the Indian government and its interests. India knows that America is not entirely trustworthy, but in global politics, no one is. For India, a relationship with any country, big or small, must be based on mutual benefit and not be one-sided or dictated by bullying. It is up to America to see how it can deal gracefully with India. If it cannot, India has no worries, as it survived and grew for the initial fifty to sixty years without a good relationship with America.
The emerging global order demands that India chart its own course – one that maximizes opportunities while minimizing dependencies. This is not about choosing sides, but about ensuring that India’s rise continues unimpeded by external pressures, regardless of their source.
