There was a lot of speculation and confusion about the possible candidates for Congress to contest the Raebareli and Amethi parliamentary seats. It was always claimed that Rahul Gandhi would contest from Amethi. The reason behind his possible candidature was argued to be that INDI alliance partner, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, insisted on Rahul contesting from UP.
On the morning of the last day of nomination, the Congress party decided to field Rahul Gandhi in Raebareli, which is considered the only safe seat for Congress in UP. But why did Rahul Gandhi decide to contest from Raebareli instead of Amethi? His opponents claimed that Rahul Gandhi was in fear of losing to Smriti Irani in Amethi a second time. On the other hand, pro-Congress people, especially in social media, claimed that Rahul’s decision to contest from Raebareli was in fact with the aim of making Smriti Irani irrelevant. Is this reason credible? I don’t think so.
When Priyanka Gandhi asked ‘who is Smriti Irani’ in 2014, Smriti Irani wasn’t a heavyweight leader then. Also, she lost the election in 2014. However, when she won in 2019 against Rahul Gandhi, she was no longer a lightweight leader. If she can defeat the biggest opposition leader in his backyard while riding on the possible five-year anti-incumbency of the NDA government, I think that is enough to establish Smriti Irani as one of the front-line leaders.
Politics is a game or perception. Somehow, I feel Congress has lost the battle of perception here. How? Let me explain it.
Yes, Congress’s allies and even many Congress leaders wanted Rahul Gandhi to contest from UP. Amethi was the natural seat where he could have contested, and nobody would have questioned the decision. At best, he could have lost the Amethi election. So, what? He has already contested from Wayanad. Does the win or loss in Amethi really matter? Had I been asked, I would have suggested that he should contest against Narendra Modi in Varanasi. No doubt, Narendra Modi would have won. But then Rahul’s contest against Narendra Modi in his Varanasi seat could have made the opposition very encouraged, and the opposition could have gotten great momentum. But why did he search for a safe seat?
Is there any chance of Rahul Gandhi losing Wayanad? CPI leader D. Raja’s wife was contesting against Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad. Is the Congress’s survey indicating that Rahul Gandhi might lose in Wayanad?
Rahul Gandh may win in Wayanad with a greater margin. But the perception is that Rahul Gandhi’s quest for a safe seat in Raebareli has definitely something to do with Wayanad’s possible outcome. It should be noted that while campaigning in Amethi in 2019, Rahul Gandhi suddenly decided to contest from Wayanad also. The perception during that time was that Rahul Gandhi wasn’t sure about winning Amethi. Although the Amethi election date was after the polling of Wayanad, such perceptions ensured Rahul Gandhi’s defeat in 2019.
This time also, the perception of people (no doubt propagated by his opponent BJP leaders) is that he could lose in Wayanad, and that’s why he had chosen a safe seat in Raebareli. Although Congress’s vote share in Raebareli is constantly reducing, Sonia Gandhi got a 55% vote share in the 2019 general election.
Another Congress claim is that Rahul Gandhi is at Raebareli to ensure the continuation of the family legacy. But that too, people won’t buy, because Amethi too is a family seat. Then again, if Raebareli were to remain with the Gandhis, then what stopped Priyanka Gandhi from contesting there?
When the name of Priyanka Gandh comes up, another perception is also there among many top journalists. According to them, Priyanka Gandhi has more connections with party workers than Rahul Gandhi. It’s always said that Priyanka Gandhi is the crisis manager of the Congress Party. Be it the Sachin Pilot revolt or even Himachal Pradesh’s revolt, it’s Priyanka Gandhi who resolved the issue. It’s also being discussed that Priyanka Gandhi is totally committed to Rahul Gandhi, and thus, because Rahul Gandhi doesn’t want Priyank to contest, she refused to contest. Why does Rahul Gandhi oppose Priyanka’s candidacy?
Some Congress people claim that Rahul Gandhi doesn’t want all family members to contest. But when mother and son are in active politics, why an excuse of family? Is Rahul or his coteries apprehensive that once Priyanka Gandhi joins active politics, she may overtake Rahul Gandhi? I don’t say this, but you can’t stop the narrative of a perception. It’s also being discussed that Sonia Gandhi doesn’t want Priyanka Gandhi to be active in active politics. Why? Is it ‘Putra Prem’ that forces Sonia Gandhi to have a gender bias?
What will happen in the coming days, only to be known on June 4th? However, Rahul deciding to contest in a safe seat like Raebareli appears to be a self-goal, at least in the perception battle. Once more, I want to repeat that electoral politics is basically a war of different perceptions.