Many BJP supporters suddenly became worried after Arvind Kejriwal’s release on interim bail. They also started panicking about whether Kejriwal, through campaigning, would dent the BJP’s prospects, at least in the remaining phases. I was also asked what the effect of Kejriwal’s interim relief will be and whether SC is right in showing an unprecedented and extra-ordinary (some say extra-judiciary) favor. My reading into these matters is explained below.
First, let’s understand SC’s interim relief to Kejriwal. It may appear that Kejriwal is given a special favor that is extra-ordinary. I concede to that. But then there are some extra-ordinary situations also linked to this case. First, his arrest came after the declaration of the election. You may ask, if there is any law that forbids the arrest of an accused during the election. No, there’s no such law that stops any arrest. But then the FIR was registered one and a half years earlier. What stopped investigating agencies from arresting him earlier? Well, there were summons, which Kejriwal ignored. But no one stopped the ED from arresting him. In any case, the case would have gone to court, and the courts would have deliberated regarding the case like they are now. Next, if Kejriwal is to be arrested after 9 summonses, then ED could have waited till the election is over. When a person was roaming for one and a half years despite the FIR, what would have been different if he had not been arrested for another two months? So, the central agencies may have unintendedly done a job that, although legally correct, was politically incorrect. That’s visible to all and to SC as well. After all, judges too are from this society, and they have an obligation to it as well. In that sense, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with Kejriwal’s interim relief provided by the SC.
Now let’s look at the effects of Kejriwal’s campaigning. Let me tell you very frankly. Kejriwal’s release won’t affect the BJP’s prospects at all. Rather, the BJP’s campaign will get another focus on ‘corruption’, which was literally lost in the hot contest between caste-census and minority appeasement. As politics in general and electoral politics in particular are a game of perceptions or better narratives, both sides always propagate the narrative that attracts the most people. So, I don’t think Kejriwal’s will have any effect on the BJP’s prospects.
But Kejriwal’s campaign post-release would seriously impact Congress’s prospects. It must be noted that neither Rahul Gandhi nor Priyanka Gandhi have twitted anything (till the publication of this article) on Kejriwal’s interim relief because they know the reality of its impact on Congress. Even Sandip Dikshit, the Congress leader from Delhi, although he welcomes Kejriwal’s interim relief, raises a question on SC regarding the special favor given to Kejriwal, echoing the BJP and ED lawyer’s points.
First, Kejriwal will take away media attention from Rahul Gandhi with immediate effect. Kejriwal is a smart communicator and intelligently creates controversies that attract media headlines. Till this day, the contest was almost between Narendra Modi versus Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi, at least in the media space. The new entrant, Kejriwal, will now eat away most of the attention because Narendra Modi will stay in his space as he is being challenged. In no previous election, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi got as much media attention as in this election to date. Other regional parties are almost not visible in the national media.
Second, where is AAP contesting? It has just 20 seats to contest. Four in Delhi, two in Gujarat, one in Haryana, and thirteen in Punjab. Kejriwal won’t have an impact in Delhi because the BJP is very strong in 6 out of 7 seats. The East Delhi seat is a bit tight, and that seat will only be a contest between the AAP and BJP. In Gujrat and Haryana, AAP is not a serious contender. So, this boils down to Punjab, where the BJP isn’t a player at all. Both the Congress and the AAP are rivals in Punjab. So, the emotional appeal of Arvind Kejriwal is likely to hurt Congress more in Punjab. That’s why Congress is more worried about Kejriwal’s interim bail.
Just one caveat is that, despite all logic, anything may happen in Indian politics, especially in electoral politics in India.