The ‘Vote Chori’ allegation and ‘Vote Adhikar Yatra’ by the Congress-led opposition appear to be a hot topic among political analysts and people interested in current affairs. Many are unanimous that this narrative is mainly intended to influence the forthcoming Bihar election. The core question is whether the opposition can convince the Bihar public with their narrative.
In Indian election politics, perception generally matters, and in states like Bihar, there are other basic factors too. Apart from a compelling narrative, the caste equation, politically inclined ideologies, and religious equations play a crucial role. Let’s explore all these aspects.
Parties and alliances always build a narrative to attract their core voters. This means that a narrative, whether right or wrong, always gets support from its core constituency. Others (like the BJP-led NDA allies) do not subscribe to the same narrative. This was proven during the 2019 general election, when the Congress-led opposition built a narrative of ‘Chowkidar Chor Hai’ on alleged Rafale corruption. Voters who were not part of the core constituency of Congress and its allies did not accept that narrative, and the BJP scored 303 seats alone.
However, the ‘Sambidhan Khatre mein hai’ (Constitution is in danger) narrative by the Congress-led INDIA alliance in fact damaged the NDA’s electoral success, limiting the BJP to just 240 seats. One might question how a narrative meant to attract only the core constituency could also damage the BJP’s core vote bank. The answer is simple. A couple of BJP leaders’ speeches about changing the constitution, combined with a doctored video of Amit Shah appearing to say that SC and ST reservations would be ended, created widespread fear. Although the BJP claimed the video was fake and registered FIRs against those who spread it, they were perhaps unable to reach the masses and convince them of the truth. Thus, a narrative—whether wrong or right—must be confronted because, in Indian elections, a narrative with recency bias often works. It is noteworthy, however, that this particular narrative did not significantly affect the NDA’s electoral success in Bihar.
The Immutable Caste Equation
The caste equation in Bihar is such that simple alliances are not possible. For example, EBCs (Extremely Backward Classes) can ally with Muslims but typically not with Yadavs. During the RJD’s past rule, there was always an M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) combination, and other castes were often divided. Similarly, forward castes find it difficult to align with Muslims, creating another layer of complexity in alliance formation. This religious-caste intersection means that while Muslims constitute a reliable vote bank for secular parties, they cannot be easily combined with upper caste votes that traditionally lean towards the BJP.
Nitish Kumar, a master of caste politics, started consolidating the EBC community and thereafter made that community his pocket vote. Although Nitish Kumar’s core vote is less than 10%, whichever side he allies with, that side tends to win. This makes Nitish Kumar a winning factor in Bihar that cannot be ignored. The Mahadalit consolidation under Nitish Kumar further adds to this complexity, as this community of the most marginalized castes has found political representation through JDU’s social engineering.
Muslims, for their part, have consistently avoided the BJP, viewing the party’s Hindutva agenda as antithetical to their interests. This creates a permanent electoral constraint for the BJP-led NDA, which must compensate for this loss through overwhelming support from other communities. The Brahmin-Rajput-Baniya combination that traditionally supports the BJP also has limitations, as these communities alone cannot deliver electoral victory without broader coalition building.
The Ideological and Floating Voter
There is also a percentage of the vote bank that will vote for a political party irrespective of its performance or any allegations against it. For example, the M-Y combination for RJD, left-leaning people for left parties, and forward castes for the BJP. The ideological voter in Bihar also includes those committed to social justice politics, who view electoral choices through the lens of caste empowerment and representation.
But there is always a floating voter base that changes sides based on performance or other issues. Development-oriented voters, particularly in urban and semi-urban areas, often prioritize governance over identity considerations. Women voters, who have emerged as a significant swing constituency, often base their choices on welfare schemes and safety concerns rather than traditional caste loyalties.
From this floating percentage, a special vote bank has been created by Narendra Modi. It’s always estimated that Modi has around a 7-10% vote bank who are ordinarily not core BJP voters. They either vote for him personally or abstain, or they vote in a manner that won’t benefit the opposition, yet displays their anger. For example, in the 2020 Bihar assembly election, Narendra Modi’s voters in areas where the JDU was contesting voted in favor of Chirag Paswan instead of the RJD or Congress. At that time, Nitish Kumar was facing significant anti-incumbency, especially from this core Narendra Modi vote bank. That is precisely why the JDU performed so poorly.
Youth voters, particularly first-time voters, represent another unpredictable segment. While not bound by traditional caste loyalties like their elders, they are influenced by employment opportunities, educational prospects, and social media narratives in ways that older demographic segments may not be.
Regional Variations and Local Factors
Bihar’s electoral map is further complicated by regional variations. North Bihar, with its different caste composition and proximity to Nepal, often votes differently from South Bihar. The Seemanchal region, with its significant Muslim population, has distinct political preferences. The Magadh region’s historical consciousness and Mithilanchal’s cultural identity add additional layers of complexity that statewide narratives must navigate.
Local candidates and their caste identity often trump party affiliations in many constituencies. A Yadav candidate of the BJP might still attract Yadav votes despite the community’s traditional alignment with RJD, just as a Muslim candidate of a smaller party might split the secular vote.
The Anti-Incumbency Factor
Anti-incumbency in Bihar operates differently due to its coalition nature. Voters often punish individual parties within an alliance rather than the entire coalition. This selective anti-incumbency allows for internal adjustments within alliances while maintaining overall coalition stability. The 2020 election demonstrated this when JDU faced significant anti-incumbency while BJP’s performance remained relatively stable within the same alliance.
The Final Verdict
Based on these factors, this ‘Vote Adhikar Yatra’ or ‘Vote Chori’ narrative may not have a significant effect. As the caste equations are almost rigid, and religious polarization limits cross-community coalition possibilities, the only truly variable factor is the choice of Narendra Modi’s core voters and the performance-oriented floating voters. The narrative’s success would also depend on its ability to transcend caste barriers, which seems unlikely given Bihar’s established social dynamics.
It is important to note that this vote bank is loyal to Modi but not necessarily to whomever Modi endorses. Similarly, the development-focused voter segment expects tangible governance outcomes rather than campaign promises. Thus, if these voters either abstain or vote for a third party (including independents like Prashant Kishor) or even NOTA, the RJD-led alliance will likely win. But if this vote bank is somehow convinced and gives its vote to the NDA, then Nitish Kumar will once again be the Chief Minister of Bihar.
Ultimately, Bihar’s electoral outcome will likely be determined more by the arithmetic of these established social coalitions and the performance evaluation by swing voters than by any narrative about electoral integrity, regardless of its merit or political appeal.
