Delhi Assembly Election 2025: Who will win the election?

The Election Commissioner of India declared the dates of the Delhi Assembly election 2025 on 7 January 2025. Voting will be held on February 5, and counting will be conducted on February 8.

While electoral politics have been intensifying since December 2024, the level of political rivalry is now at an unprecedented height. Knives were out among political parties, and the most interesting scene is the war among INDI Alliance partners. While both AAP and Congress are competing, some other INDI Alliance partners like SP and TMC are openly supporting AAP opposing Congress. This scene really is damaging for a united opposition in the national polity, and importantly, it will tarnish the stature of Rahul Gandhi as an undisputed opposition leader. This division among INDI Alliance might be a result of the poor performance of Congress in Haryana and Maharashtra, where it was the lead party. The results of Jharkhand and J & K mostly won because of local lead parties like JMM and NC.

However, let’s concentrate on the Delhi elections. Who will win the election? Is the difference between AAP and Congress beneficial to BJP? Is AAP losing the battle? Is Congress re-emerging in Delhi state politics? Let’s analyse the previous data and find out possible outcomes.

The below table is the data of state elections since 2013.

APP emerged as a new and significant stakeholder in Delhi polity with a 29.5% vote share in 2013. In fact, it had more vote share than that of Congress. Point to be noted: the BJP got the highest vote share with 33% but remains short of the majority. In the 2015 assembly election, AAP surged with a vote share of 54.3% with 67 seats. Congress reduced to 9.7%. The point to be noted is that the BJP didn’t lose its vote share; rather, Congress lost its share to AAP.

In 2020, Congress again lost its vote share and was reduced to just 4.26%. This time, Congress’s further vote share in fact went to the BJP, which got an impressive 38.5% vote share, increasing by a margin of 6.5%. Even AAP lost marginally some vote share although it did lose just 5 seats in the previous election.

Therefore, from the above table it’s clear that there’s just two parties, AAP and BJP in Delhi polity and if AAP loses vote share due to anti-incumbency, the BJP will benefit as there’s no congress in Delhi.

But is really there’s no Congress in Delhi polity? Let’s go to another table, with Parliamentary elections.

AAP, although it got more vote share in 2014 because of its hype then, got less vote share than Congress in subsequent elections. In the 2024 election, it may appear that AAP has got more vote share than Congress, but if you will do per seat calculation, then Congress has more vote share as Congress contested in 3 seats compared to AAP’s 4 seats. That means Congress is very much there in Delhi politics.

Now let us do math. In 2024 general election, the most loyal vote share of both Congress and AAP is (24.2 + 18.9%) = 43.1%. The difference between the BJP’s vote share in the 2019 general election and the 2020 assembly election is (56.9-38.51), is 18.39% vote share. That means Congress and AAP combined have a vote share of 43.1% and the BJP has a vote share of 38.51% and 18.39% can go either way. So, if AAP and Congress if contest jointly and take at least half of this 18% vote share, then they would be winners.

Again, things are different here. Congress and AAP are no more allies in this, and there’s a triangular competition. That means the result depends on how this 43.1% vote share is distributed among Congress and AAP and how the floating 18.39% vote share votes. 

Let me do some predictions.

If Congress gets less than 10% vote share and the floating vote share is divided between AAP and BJP, then AAP will get the majority. If Congress gets between 15-20% vote share and the floating vote share is distributed equally to all parties, then there will be an AAP-Congress government. In case Congress crosses 20% vote share, then the BJP will get a majority. In case Congress gets more than 20% vote share or any other condition not cited in the above, BJP is going to win the election.

What you think. Comment on your prediction and also ask if you have any doubt.