Many including pollsters were expressing surprise over the recent assembly election results of Rajasthan, MP & Chhattisgarh. Some are even pointing fingers towards EVM while many thinks there must be some strategical error among the Congress election team. But I am very sure, none is perhaps focusing the real reason why BJP won hands down.
If I am to describe regarding these election results, I will sum up it to say that BJP learnt its lesson from Karnataka election & implemented it in these assembly elections. On the other hand, Congress thought that Bharat Jodo Yatra, freebie-politics, caste census, attacking Narendra Modi is the only way to win election. In this article, I will explain with examples the lesson learnt by BJP and not learnt by Congress. But before that let’s do scrutiny of Karnataka assembly election 2023 in comparison to the election in 2018.
Karnataka Assembly Election-2023.
| Year | INC | BJP | JDS | Others | ||||
| Vote Share | Seats Won | Vote Share | Seats Won | Vote Share | Seats Won | Vote share | Seats Won | |
| 2018 | 38.14% | 80 | 36.35% | 104 | 18.3% | 37 | 7.21% | 3 |
| 2023 | 42.88% | 135 | 36% | 66 | 13.29% | 19 | 7.83% | 4 |
Source- Wikipedia (1. 2018 Karnataka Legislative Assembly election – Wikipedia & 2023 Karnataka Legislative Assembly election – Wikipedia)
The above table explains that BJP had got same vote share in 2018 & 2023. But its seats were 104 in 2018 despite having around 2% less vote share than Congress (38.14%) whereas seats were just 66 in 2023. Did it really because INC got a 4% jump in it’s vote share?
General observation is natural that Congress had a 6% vote share than BJP in 2023, that’s why it had a bumper mandate. But that’s not true, especially in Karnataka because the distribution of vote shares. BJP’s vote share is concentrated at couple region whereas Congress’s vote share is widespread throughout the state. Thus, the answer doesn’t lie in BJP’s vote share, rather the real reason is JDS’s vote share. As majority of JDS’s vote share of 6% transferred to Congress, that’s why Congress got such a mandate.
The bottom line is ‘Vote share’ alone is not important and it’s important how it’s distributed. That brings the third player into the game. In Karnataka, JDS was the third player but in states like Rajasthan, MP & Chhattisgarh, the others are the third players.
Now let’s go to Rajasthan, MP & Chhattisgarh comparison of 2018 & 2023 assembly results
Rajasthan assembly election results
| Year | INC | BJP | Others | |||
| Vote Share | Seats Won | Vote Share | Seats Won | Vote share | Seats Won | |
| 2018 | 39.30% | 100 | 38.77% | 73 | 21.93% | 27 |
| 2023 | 39.55% | 69 | 41.69% | 115 | 18.76% | 15 |
Source Wikipedia (2018 Rajasthan Legislative Assembly election – Wikipedia & 2023 Rajasthan Legislative Assembly election -Wikipedia )
From the above table it’s clear that Congress has almost the same vote share, rather an increase of 0.25% vote share whereas its seats reduced from 100 to 69. BJP has increased it’s vote share by roughly 3% but increased its seat tally from 73 to 115. It’s not exactly just because BJP got 3% increased vote-share, rather from where it gets this 3%. Just see the table, BJP has bagged this 3% vote share from the other’s column and that effectively reduced Congress’s seat tally despite having same vote share in previous election.
Madhya Pradesh assembly election results
| Year | INC | BJP | Others | |||
| Vote Share | Seats Won | Vote Share | Seats Won | Vote share | Seats Won | |
| 2018 | 40.89% | 114 | 41.02% | 109 | 18.01% | 7 |
| 2023 | 40.40% | 66 | 48.55% | 163 | 11.05% | 1 |
Reference- Wikipedia ( 2018 Madhya Pradesh Legislative Assembly election – Wikipedia and 2023 Madhya Pradesh Legislative Assembly election – Wikipedia
BJP’s bumper mandate in MP also proves this simple logic. Note that Congress achieved same vote share in both 2018 as well as 2023. But’s its seats were reduced from 114 to 66. On the other hand, BJP increased its vote share around 7.5% and interestingly all these additional vote-shares came from other’s vote share of 2018 and that’s why they got a massive mandate of 163 seats.
Chhattisgarh assembly election results
| Year | INC | BJP | Others | |||
| Vote Share | Seats Won | Vote Share | Seats Won | Vote share | Seats Won | |
| 2018 | 43% | 68 | 33% | 15 | 24% | 7 |
| 2023 | 42.23% | 35 | 46.27% | 54 | 11.5% | 1 |
Source- Wikipedia ( 2018 Chhattisgarh Legislative Assembly election – Wikipedia and 2023 Chhattisgarh Legislative Assembly election – Wikipedia )
In Chhattisgarh also Congress maintained almost same vote share (Just 0.77% less vote share) yet their seat tally is reduced to 35 from 68. On the other hand, BJP has increased its vote share around 13% and those additional vote shares are from others vote share of 2018 assembly election. Point to be noted that during 2018 assembly election there was a third front alliance among JJC, BSP & CPI which had polled around 12% vote-share & 7 seats. In this election that front was absent.
The moot point is the others vote share or a third party’s vote share. Here point must be noted that a third party or third front is more organised whereas the others who are mostly independent are not organised yet put a strong impact on number of seats won irrespective of a party wining a good vote share. To prove this logic let me cite another assembly election example of Himachal Pradesh assembly election of 2022 & 2017.
In 2017 assembly election BJP had got 48.8% vote share and 44 seats whereas Congress had 41.17% vote share with 21 seats. Others had 9.8% vote share and 3 sears. On the other hand, in 2022 assembly election BJP had got 43% vote share, a reduction of 5.8% vote shares its seat tally reduced to 25. On the other hand, Congress (43.9%) had just got only 2.73% more vote share than that of 2017 and just 0.9% more vote share than BJP yet got tremendously increased seat tally of 40. General observation is that as both Congress and BJP got almost same vote share the number of seats should be almost same or a tight race. But here the others got around 5% more vote share and depending upon their influence centre they affected the number of seats won by main two parties. In fact the others or smaller parties always impact on number of seats in polities like TN or Kerala where two main parties may have almost same vote share yet their number of seats are drastically different.
So, the main point is that BJP understood the value of others vote share. That’s why it deputed senior leaders including MPs and ministers into the state polity to work minutely to bring vote shares from others through allying with smaller parties or accommodating influential community leaders in ST & SC belt. Just recall how BJP despite a big force in UP. It always goes for alliance with smaller parties having just 1 to 2% vote share. The reason is simple, the others vote share are unorganised & if brought to own fold it makes strike rate of seats very high.
Congress through their internal surveys confident that they are almost maintaining the same vote share to which they call as pro-incumbency wave. They couldn’t gauge BJP’s detailed work in bring other’s vote share without affecting Congress’s vote share. No doubt, Congress was able to hold its vote share of 2018 but the fact that it never went through Karnataka assembly election 2023’s real reason why BJP lost despite holding the same vote share.
In the above, I hope I have explained my point. What’s your opinion?