There’s a lot of speculation going on in Bihar politics and many are apprehending that there will be a political blast in Bihar. Such rumors started a couple of weeks ago, and then on December 29, 2023, when Nitish Kumar assumed the position of national president of the JDU party, many political analysts started claiming that Nitish Kumar was already in the mode of returning to the NDA. According to some, Nitish Kumar may declare this on January 14, 2024, after the end of ‘Kharmas’ (mid-December to mid-January).
Not only TV media but also YouTube channels are full of analysts citing many reasons for such a development. Some claim that Nitish Kumar is being pressured by Lalu Yadav to hand over the Chief Ministership of Bihar to his son, Tejasvi Yadav. Some also claim that RJD is plotting a split with JDU through the outgoing JDU president, Lalan Singh, so that RJD can have numbers to claim the CM post. Some others are giving reasons like Nitish is not being offered as PM or convenor post of the INDI Alliance, BJP central leadership gave some offers to Nitish Kumar, etc.
Many of my friends asked about my take on this development. Although in politics, especially in the case of Nitish Kumar, nothing is impossible, I still don’t believe that Nitish Kumar is going to join the NDA, nor is the BJP so keen to bring Nitish Kumar back. Why do I think so? Well, before I explain that, let’s understand why Nitish Kumar and JDU are important in Bihar politics.
Nitish Kumar is a multiplier in Bihar politics.
Nitish Kumar-led JDU has a consistent 15% vote share in Bihar politics. If we go through the vote shares of the 2014 general election, JDU contested alone, getting 15.8% of the vote share, whereas the BJP and RJD got 29.4% and 20.10% of the vote, respectively. In the 2019 general election, JDU contested the election as an ally of the NDA and got 21.81% of the vote. But then this extra 6% vote share of JDU should be considered as the BJP’s vote share because the BJP had 23.58% vote share, which is around 6% less than that of 2014 general election when it contested alone. The same vote share of JDU can also be proven from the 2015 and 2020 Bihar assembly election results. In 2015, JDU was part of Mahagathbandhan and got a 16.8% vote share. In 2020, it fought the assembly election as part of the NDA alone and got a vote share of 15.39%. This proves that JDU has an overall vote share of 15%, whether it fights alone or allies with either the UPA or NDA.
Thus, it’s clear that, as a political party, JDU is nothing in Bihar if it goes solo in any election. But if it allies with any alliance, such as the UPA or NDA, in elections, it makes that alliance the winner. Thus, it puts Nitish Kumar at pole position and naturally attracts both the NDA and the UPA. This is the reason why, despite a smaller number of seats, Nitish Kumar was always made Chief Minister by either alliance. This is also the reason why Nitish Kumar can bargain more effectively.
In 2014, Nitish Kumar saw Narendra Modi as a rival and was overconfident that his popularity would make his party the largest party in politically important Bihar. That’s why he contested alone. But the result showed the BJP’s larger footprint and RJD’s loyal vote banks can’t be reduced just because of his popularity. That’s where Nitish Kumar realized his power to bargain to be with either of the allies. RJD, as a desperate party, quickly accepted Nitish Kumar as the CM of Mahagathbandhan and had a huge success in the 2015 assembly election. The Mahagthbandhan government was really working well. But then Lalu Yadav had ambition and wanted to see his son Tejasvi as CM. Thus, there was perhaps an attempt to break JDU, which irked Nitish Kumar, and thus Nitish returned to the NDA fold, which the BJP accepted gladly. The 2019 general election in Bihar was a grand success for the NDA, although JDU benefited more in terms of seats, whereas the BJP’s number was reduced. Then came the 2020 assembly election, at which time Nitish Kumar became more unpopular because of his anti-incumbency and his change of alliances, or U-turns. The NDA just won a simple majority thanks to the BJP, where the JDU’s seats were reduced drastically to 45. The BJP allowed Nitish Kumar to be CM of Bihar, although he lost much of his influence. Many in the BJP also started to see him as a less important player and completely dependent on the BJP. That must have hurt Nitish Kumar’s ego. Thus, he again left the NDA and allied with the RJD and Congress. The idea was that he will be the face of the anti-BJP forum, and in 2024, when the anti-BJP party wins the election, he can be PM of the country, which Lalu Yadav to support and organize in exchange of the Chief Ministership of Bihar for his son Tejasvi.
What happened now?
It’s very clear from the recent meetings of the INDI Alliance that Nitish Kumar has lost importance. In fact, the dominant parties in Congress-led INDI alliances are TMC, DMK, RJD, NCP, etc. Even the split Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackaray and Arvind Kejriwal, became more prominent than Nitish Kumar. In many instances, Tejasvi Yadav is given preference to Nitish Kumar in Bihar political situations. That really made Nitish Kumar cautious, and he soon realized that he may be sidelined soon, even in Bihar polity.
It’s said that when Mamata Banerjee proposed Mallikarjun Kharge’s name as PM face, Nitish Kumar expected that Lalu Yadav should have proposed Nitish Kumar’s name at least as convenor of the alliance. As a convenor, Nitish Kumar would have upper hand in many alliance-related issues, including seat sharing in Bihar and some other states like Jharkhand, Manipur, Assam, etc. Clearly, Congress and RJD might not be interested in giving such an important post to the number three party in the state. Further, some are saying that Lalu Yadav wanted Nitish Kumar to leave the CM post for Tejasvi Yadav if he wanted to be convenor of the INDI Alliance. Whatever the fact, it’s true that Nitish Kumar realized that he’s losing political clout even in the INDI Alliance.
It should be noted that the moment Nitish Kumar is absent from Bihar politics, there will be no JDU in Bihar. A part will merge with the RJD, and the other will merge with the BJP. If Nitish Kumar is there, JDU is there. Thus, a political loss of clout will end the political career of not only Nitish Kumar but also JDU. As a mature politician, Nitish Kumar sensed the urgency and took action to assert himself as having the upper hand in the bargain.
What’s in the play?
Nitish Kumar seldom says anything. But he’s always used events as well as partymen to convey the message. There’s no fault of Lalan Singh, as no one in JDU can ever go against Nitish Kumar. Lalan Singh was very critical of Narendra Modi and became closer to Lalu Yadav as per the instructions of Nitish Kumar. The perceivable sacking of Lalan Singh is nothing but giving a message to Lalu Yadav that if they want to play a game, then JDU can also play the game by returning to NDA. The message that many JDU MPs are seeking alliances with the BJP is also being spread to warn both Congress and RJD.
Clearly, Nitish Kumar wants a prominent role in the INDI Alliance; there is no question of quitting the Chief Minister post and getting a better share of seats in the 2024 general election. In desperation, both RJD and the INDI Alliance may yield. I don’t see Nitish Kumar returning to the NDA, and I don’t see the BJP accepting Nitish Kumar on Nitish Kumar’s terms.