Apart from the leadership or face of the alliance, as discussed in Part 1, the most complex issue among the INDI alliance is seat-sharing. The declared motto of the alliance is to field one candidate against BJP in every set. Can this be followed throughout the nation or will it be adopted in specific areas? For example, in Kerala & Punjab BJP is not present. In Kerala Left alliance (LDF) & Congress alliance (UDF) are the main rivals. Now both being fierce rival in the state, will there be any seat-sharing between Left & Congress? As seat-sharing is nothing but give & take, who’s going to give & who’s going to take? Then there’s an elementary theory that public always want an alternative candidate/party or alliance to vote. In case both LDF & UDF did seat-sharing and contest in 10 seats each, will that give BJP a room to increase its footprint?
Let me give example of public moods and moods among ground level workers. In one seat of Keral LDF candidate is contesting and no UDF candidate. Followers of LDF will vote for that candidate. Will the followers of UDF to vote for the candidate? The answer is negative because fierce rivalry among two alliance is the key to success of individual parties/alliances. Thus, UDF followers will try to find an alternative candidate to express their resentment, protest or even anguish. What if they will turn to BJP candidate or say an independent candidate? The precedence says that the third party which ever has some credence or recognition, will get the benefit. This is called result of incompatible alliance.
Despite their opposing political ideologies, the SP and BSP formed an alliance in Uttar Pradesh. They failed and BJP is benefited in vote share. In West Bengal Left & Congress did an incompatible alliance as a result BJP became the second largest party. In Telangana, Congress & TDP made an incompatible alliance in 2018 and BJP got a foothold in Telangana polity. So, If LDF & UDF makes seat-sharing in Kerala, in the long run BJP will be benefited.
Similarly, the issue is between AAP & Congress. It can be understood that seat-sharing between AAP & Congress is possible in Delhi because of the strong presence of BJP there. But what will happen in Punjab? BJP is not present there & SAD is a declining force in that polity. Can there be seat-sharing between Congress & AAP? If done such incompatible alliance in Punjab, won’t it benefit to SAD or even BJP to an extent? Are AAP & Congress ready to cede space to SAD? Or indirectly to BJP? Ask any political analyst, they will say SAD’s only survival chance is allying with BJP although tactfully there will be no alliance in this 2024 general election.
In case realising this issue, there will be no seat-sharing in Punjab & Kerala, how the INDI alliance able to convince people of the country that they are united to defeat BJP. Present day people won’t take the duality where you will be cursing each other in one state and supporting each other states.
Again, there are complex issues of seat-sharing in states like Maharashtra, West Bengal & Bihar. In Maharashtra both NCP & Shiv Sena split into half. So technically Congress as has not split should get more than 50% of seats. Will that be acceptable by Uddhav Thackeray who has Chief Ministerial aspiration & Sharad Pawar himself? It’s for sure that in NDA, BJP will contest in more than fifty percent seats. As sources say that BJP is planning to conduct state assembly elections of Maharashtra along with the parliamentary election. In such case, I don’t think Congress, Uddhav Thackaray and Sharad Pawar want to cede their bargaining power so easily.
In West Bengal, there could be a seat-sharing between TMC & Congress. But what about Left parties? Point to be noted that Left alliance led by CPM was the main rivalry against Congress & TMC in West Bengal polity. In 2019, Left alliance did an incompatible alliance with Congress and as a result it lost 16.66 % vote share & scored a blank. Can they afford to be with seat-sharing arrangements with TMC? Does TMC needs CPM which had only 6.33% vote share in 2019 general election? Also if TMC, Congress and Left alliance fight as one, won’t it establish the fact that there’s a two way contest between TMC & BJP in West Bengal polity. Congress may afford to lose West Bengal polity but does CPM ready to do that?
In Bihar, how will be the seat arrangement among RJD, JDU and Congress. RJD would agree to give more seats to JDU with a condition that Tejasvi Yadav to be the next CM in assembly. How many seats Congress will get? In UPA arrangement, RJD never give more than 4 seats to Congress for which Congress fought elections separately in general elections. Further, as the Congress has least chance to win seats in states where BJP is strong and the rival, thus Congress would want to increase its seats with allies in states where regional parties are strong. Congress might want to give seats to such regional parties in their strong zone in exchange of getting increased number of seats. But will the INDI allies agree to it? For example, Congress may offer seats from Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP etc. to TMC, JDU, RJD etc in exchange of increased number of seats in West Bengal & Bihar. TMC, RJD & JDU know that even Congress can’t win they’re thus getting those seats in states where BJP is strong, which is not beneficial. Thus, they won’t be interested.
Finally, if we go through all such details, for the sake of contesting the mighty BJP, other INDI alliance may force Congress to contest in 200-250 seats only. Will that be acceptable to Congress? Even if Congress top leadership agrees, will the Congress workers agree?
Unless & until this seat-sharing issue is not resolved, I don’t think there’s any chance of defeating BJP. As time is fast running out, INDI Alliance need urgent and matured working n this.