The shouting match between Trump and Zelensky during a media interaction at the Oval Office of the White House has divided the world. The possible peace deal to end the war between Russia and Ukraine is off the table now. Most people are attempting to dictate terms to Ukraine, a victim, while also supporting Russia, the aggressor. On the other hand, many are also accusing Zelensky of not realizing the ground reality and pushing his country towards destruction.
Everyone agrees that Trump’s approach to politics and diplomacy is unconventional, assertive, and occasionally dictatorial. He isn’t concerned about diplomatic necessities. He’s a transactional president of the USA who believes in deals that are beneficial to the USA or at least not a loss to American interests.
Zelensky, on the other hand, presents himself not only as the courageous president of a small country that can confront a bigger power like Russia, but also time and again represents himself as the savior of all of Europe from expansionist Russia. Some argue that Ukraine’s proximity to NATO and its desire for membership may have influenced Russia’s decision to attack. No country will tolerate the presence of opposition military forces in its borders.
In world politics, there are instances when logic fails, sovereignty is disregarded, and diplomacy becomes secondary. America and NATO had attacked Gulf countries, Vietnam, Yugoslavia, and other places, not for any high moral ground but for selfish interest. Thus, in global politics, only power and self-interest matter. The rest of the things are simple lip service.
I am returning to the Russia-Ukraine war. When is the war likely to end? I listed the following situations and their possibilities.
- Russia surrenders—I don’t think the second most powerful country with the largest nuclear arsenal will ever surrender. It will prioritize the destruction of the world over the destruction of its own country.
- Ukraine surrenders—It won’t be appropriate and acceptable to Europe as well.
- If the USA intervenes, it could trigger the start of World War III. No president of the USA, whether Republican or Democrat, would ever wish for such a scenario. They do not seek a military confrontation with Russia. It may win the war against Russia, but it will also suffer a massive loss of life and property in the USA itself.
- European Union or countries intervene militarily in the Russia and Ukraine war—All sane analysts know that without the USA, the entire European countries combined can’t stand in front of Russia. provide moral and financial support to Ukraine without involving port but don’t want to involve themselves militarily. Sanctions don’t work against big countries like Russia (or even China, India, etc.).
That means the above four aren’t practicable. There is a concern that Ukraine might struggle to field enough military personnel over time, and finally, there will be no Ukrainians to stand against the Russians on the battlefield. That’s why Trump may have come up with a more effective plan for a cease-fire. He aimed for a rare earth materials deal as part of ensuring a ceasefire. Zelensky stated that America should give a security guarantee. But why did Russia attack Ukraine in the first place? Wasn’t it for Zelensky’s desperation to be a NATO member and the EU’s promise to provide one? Wasn’t that a security guarantee? Wasn’t that the reason for Russia’s attack? How will the USA guarantee that security measures will lead to a ceasefire? Isn’t the security guarantee by the USA a means of the USA’s involvement in the conflict militarily? That’s why neither the Biden administration nor the Trump administration expressed interest in Ukraine’s NATO membership, even before their inauguration.
On the other hand, Trump’s point is that if Americans are working in Ukraine in the rare earth material business, Russia may not attack because it won’t dare to attack American citizens working in Ukraine.
Zelensky asks what the guarantee is that Russia will not attack Ukraine in the future. That’s a foolish question. There are no guarantees in world politics. Wasn’t America under Joe Biden guaranteed to help Ukraine? Could you please clarify the status of that guarantee? Weren’t there many agreements and guarantees between Russia and Ukraine that Ukraine won’t be a member of NATO and will remain friendly to Russia? Could you please clarify what became of that guarantee?
In the game of politics, grandstanding doesn’t work. But weaker countries often need to compromise more. EU countries do more compromises. The sooner Zelensky and Europe understand this, the faster the saving of lives and properties of Ukraine and also the faster the world economy will grow.
Nicely written, well articulated pointers and arguments . This Russia – Ukrain war is a foolish adventure of Zelensky. As long as such people get into power, humanity will suffer.
I think thevrare earth deal may act as a possibility of pause eventually taking to a closure of this war.